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☆ Euro zone factory July activity fell at fastest pace since onset of COVID -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

There was considerable weakness seen in Germany, Europe's largest economy, while France and Italy, the second- and third-largest euro zone economies, also recorded marked deteriorations since June. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 42.7 in July from June's 43.4, its lowest since May 2020 and matching a preliminary reading. "It looks like the manufacturing recession is here to stay in the euro zone," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. Demand fell sharply even though sinking input costs - which fell at the fastest pace since mid-2009 due to increased competition among suppliers - allowed factories to slash their charges. The output prices index was down to a near 14-year low of 45.0 from 47.0.

Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Europe's, France, Italy, HCOB's, June's, Hamburg

☆ Bank of England rates set to peak at 5.75% by year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will raise its Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.25% on August 3, making borrowing the costliest since early 2008, and hike twice more by the year-end as price pressures persist, a Reuters poll showed. While the median peak rate forecast was 5.75%, nearly half of respondents, 29 of 61, still said 5.50%, the same as a June 26 poll. As recently as a June 14 poll, the consensus was for Bank Rate to peak at 5.00%. Predictions for Bank Rate at year-end were in a wide range. Asked where core inflation will be at year-end, nearly two thirds of respondents, 14 of 22, said slightly lower.

Persons: BoE, Bruce Kasman, Morgan, Stefan Koopman, Shaloo Shrivastava, Mumal Rathore, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Bank of England, Bank, Company, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, J.P, British

☆ Worsening euro zone business downturn reignites recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The survey also indicated the European Central Bank's sustained campaign of interest rate rises is starting to take its toll on consumers and denting the services sector. In our baseline case we expect subdued growth for the second half of the year, but today's data suggest the risk of a small contraction in euro zone GDP in Q3 is increasing." In France a downturn extended into July as both the services and manufacturing sectors did worse than expected. A PRICE TO PAYThe euro zone services PMI fell to 51.1 from 52.0, its lowest since January and shy of the Reuters poll forecast for 51.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, fell to its lowest in over three years.

Persons: Paolo Grignani, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Jonathan Cable, John Stonestreet, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, June's, Oxford Economics, PMI, Reuters, Capital Economics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, France, Europe's, Britain

☆ BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% on Thursday, rate cut call pushed to 2024, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummaryCompanies BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% at July 13 meetingBENGALURU, July 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea (BOK) will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of the year as inflation continued to ease, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, but rate cut forecasts were pushed back by a quarter to early 2024. Median forecasts showed interest rates would remain on hold until the end of this year, followed by a 25 basis-point cut in the first quarter of 2024. In a May poll the quarter percentage-point cut was expected to come by end-2023. But a rate cut will depend on how quickly inflation falls. The survey also predicted South Korea's economy would grow 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2024, the same as the previous survey.

Persons: BOK, Irene Cheung, Anant Chandak, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jonathan Cable, Hari Kishan, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of Korea, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, ANZ, U.S . Fed, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, South Korea, Asia

☆ Euro zone business activity contracts in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity slipped into contractionary territory last month in a broad-based downturn across the bloc's dominant services industry and a deepening decline of factory output, a survey showed. HCOB's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, slumped to 49.9 in June from May's 52.8. The slowdown in business activity growth was accompanied by a weaker rise in new business, lower price increases and a decline in business expectations," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. The services new business index was barely above breakeven at a five-month low of 51.0. In one bright spot pricing pressures eased significantly in June with the composite output prices index falling to 53.8 from 56.4, its lowest since March 2021.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, May's, PMI, European Central Bank, REUTERS, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Hamburg

In Asia, while factory activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in Japan and South Korea as Asia's economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. REUTERS/Siyi LiuChina's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May, the private survey showed. The figure, combined with Friday's official survey that showed factory activity extending declines, adds to evidence the world's No. South Korea's PMI fell to 47.8 in June, extending its downturn to a record 12th consecutive month on weak demand in Asia and Europe. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Siyi Liu China's, Jonathan Cable, Sam Holmes, David Evans Organizations: PMI, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, P, Dai, Research, REUTERS, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, of, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, China, TOKYO, Europe, Britain, Asia, United States, European, U.S, Dezhou, Shandong province, South, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, of Japan's

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.50% over next two meetings: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Last week, the central bank surprised investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point, taking Bank Rate to 5.00%, and said there had been "significant" news suggesting persistently high inflation in Britain would take longer to fall. Bank Rate is now expected to peak at 5.50% next quarter following 25 basis point hikes at the BoE's August and September meetings, medians in the poll taken after the Bank's Thursday move showed. In a June 14 poll, policymakers were expected to draw a halt at 5.00% next quarter. "Are they going to be happy with just one more 25 basis points in August? Forty of 52 poll participants said the Bank would dial down the pace to 25 basis points on August 3 but gave a high median 40% chance of another 50 basis point lift.

Persons: James Smith, Stefan Koopman, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Bank, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Euro zone business growth stalls in June -flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business growth virtually stalled this month as the downturn in manufacturing deepened while activity in the bloc's dominant services industry barely expanded, a survey showed on Friday. HCOB's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the bloc, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, sank to a five-month low of 50.3 in June from May's 52.8. That was barely above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll which had predicted a more modest decline to 52.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, fell to 44.6 from 46.4. Last week the ECB raised euro zone borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years and said stubbornly high inflation all but guaranteed another move next month and likely beyond that too.

Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, May's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Hamburg

☆ Bank of England to press on with rate hikes, peak at 5.00% in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In December 2021 the BoE was one of the first major central banks to draw a line under its ultra-loose pandemic-era monetary policy. It has now raised borrowing costs by 440 basis points across 12 consecutive meetings in modest-sized rate rises. All 64 economists polled June 12-14 said the BoE would add another 25 basis points to Bank Rate on June 22, taking it to 4.75%. A majority of economists surveyed, 52 of 64, said Bank Rate will have peaked by end-August with the median forecast putting it at 5.00%. Although starting later, both the Fed and the European Central Bank have largely been raising rates in greater magnitudes than the BoE.

Persons: BoE, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann, Megan Greene, Silvana Tenreyro, Stefan Koopman, Investec's Henderson, Jonathan Cable, Aditi Verma, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Rabobank, U.S . Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Investec

☆ Mexico peso's expected fall to be broken by favourable rate spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BUENOS AIRES, June 8 (Reuters) - An expected fall in Mexico's peso will likely be cushioned by its favorable interest rate spread, although there is a wide range of views on the currency's prospects over the coming year, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed. It was also the best projection for the 12-month period in the survey's recent history, reflecting positive sentiment towards the big margin between Mexico's benchmark rate, currently at 11.25%, and the U.S fed funds rate range of 5.00%-5.25%. "This is particularly stark for MXN, whose volatility is the most subdued despite its arguably greater sensitivity to U.S.-driven risk-off shocks." In Brazil, the real , is set to fall 4.5% in one year to 5.14 per U.S. dollar from 4.91 this week. The real is up 7.7%, confounding detractors who saw it crashing early on in President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government.

Persons: Optimists, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Gabriel Burin, Anitta Sunil, Aditi Verma, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Mexico's, U.S, Brazil, Buenos Aires, Bengaluru

☆ ECB to hike rates in June and July to break sticky inflation - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Price pressures and inflation expectations have moderated, but not by enough to deter the ECB from continuing its most aggressive tightening cycle on record. The ECB slowed the pace of its rate rises to 25 basis points at its May meeting after a flurry of 75 and 50 basis point moves. About three-quarters of economists, 43 of 59, forecast another 25 basis point rate hike in July, a stance hardly changed from a May poll. "A 25 basis point rate hike looks like a done deal for next week's meeting," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "The ECB might not be convinced by the September meeting inflation is declining sufficiently to pause," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Price, Christine Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, Mark Wall, Prerana Bhat, Milounee Purohit, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, ING, U.S . Federal, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Europe

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

☆ Euro zone business growth slowed in May as factories struggled-PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

While still comfortably above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction it was below a preliminary estimate for 53.3. A PMI covering the services sector dropped to 55.1 from April's one-year high of 56.2, below the 55.9 flash reading. A manufacturing PMI released last week showed the downturn in factory activity deepened as demand slumped despite prices falling. "The services sector is being supported by the strong labour market, rising wages and a tourism sector that is flourishing throughout Europe," said de la Rubia. "The latter is confirmed by the new export business PMI, which includes tourism-related demand and remained near its series peak in May."

Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, April's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Europe

☆ British home prices to slip but won't come crashing down, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Partly finished houses are seen on a new housing development under construction in Liverpool, Britain June 2, 2023. Yes, prices will fall this year but by single digits," said Tony Williams at consultancy Building Value. From peak to trough home prices will fall 7.5%, the median in the poll showed. "Persistent core inflation and wage pressures will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates until 2024, which means mortgage rates won't fall any further until next year," said Andrew Wishart at Capital Economics. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Mumal Rathore and Anitta Sunil; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Phil Noble, Tony Williams, Andrew Wishart, BoE, Michael McGill, Barratt, Russell Quirk, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Anitta Sunil, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: Liverpool, Britain, Britain's, London

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

British government bond prices tumbled in the days after the data was released as investors added to bets high inflation will force the BoE to carry on raising interest rates, while lenders have been withdrawing mortgage deals. Meanwhile, 27 of 47 saw Bank Rate at 5.00% or higher by end-September. Bank Rate was seen sitting at 5.00% until early next year, hitting the wallets of indebted consumers already feeling the pinch from a cost of living crisis. All but three of 39 common contributors to this poll and the last one lifted their year-end prediction. The Bank needs to push back against the risk high inflation proves unexpectedly sticky, and may need to raise interest rates further, Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel said last week.

Persons: BoE, Simon Wells, Kallum Pickering, Jonathan Haskel, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Anitta Sunil, Ross Finley, Chizu Organizations: Bank of England, of England, HSBC, Bank, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Berenberg

Average house prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas were forecast to stagnate next year. "Looking ahead, we think there is scope for prices to fall a little further. "Given supply is likely to stay tight, there is a risk house prices may not fall as much as we previously expected." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently around 6.7%, was expected to average 6.2% in 2023. Those high mortgage rates are restricting housing supply, which puts upward pressure on prices, as well as demand.

Persons: Sam Hall, haven't, Sal Guatieri, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Aditi Verma, Maneesh Kumar, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: stagnating, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ Bank of England to take Bank Rate to 5.00% next quarter as inflation proves sticky, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ POLL RBA to hike rates further this year, say economists in snap poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On May 2, the RBA startled economists and financial markets with a hike. Our expectation is that the final rate hike occurs in August. Over 85% of respondents, 25 of 29, expected no hike from the central bank at its June 6 meeting, while four predicted a 25 basis point hike. Among major local banks, only ANZ forecast a 25 basis point hike in Q3 while Westpac and CBA predicted an extended pause. Median forecasts showed the cash rate remaining at 4.10% until year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in an April poll.

☆ Euro zone factory downturn deepened in April - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 2 (Reuters) - Euro zone factory activity contracted further last month, albeit not by as much as initially thought, while the cost of raw materials fell at the fastest pace in nearly three years, a survey showed on Tuesday. The HCOB final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 45.8 in April from March's 47.3, just beating a preliminary reading of 45.5 but well below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for a 10th consecutive month. Input costs falling at the fastest pace since May 2020 meant factories barely increased their prices yet demand still weakened. The output prices index fell to a 29-month low of 51.6 from 53.4. That's because both the PMI flash services price data for April and the Eurostat data available through March for services inflation continue to reflect significant price pressures," de la Rubia added.

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ Euro zone recovery unexpectedly gathering pace in April - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 21 (Reuters) - The euro zone economic recovery has unexpectedly gathered pace this month as the bloc's dominant services industry saw already buoyant demand rise, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing, surveys showed. For example, the gap between the partly booming services sector on the one hand and the weakening manufacturing sector on the other has widened further." But it was a different story for the bloc's manufacturers who saw demand decline faster. The sector's headline PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI and had spent two months in positive territory, fell to 48.5 from 50.4.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

☆ Euro zone factory downturn deepened in March, PMI shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - Activity at struggling factories across the euro zone fell further last month as consumers feeling the pinch from rising living costs cut back, according to a survey which did show the cost of manufacturing fell for the first time since mid-2020. S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.3 in March from February's 48.5, just ahead of a preliminary reading of 47.1 but below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for a ninth month. Lower energy costs and healing supply chains did however mean input prices fell for the first time since July 2020 - just when the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world. Despite having embarked on the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in the central bank's history, prices rose 6.9% last month, official data showed on Friday. Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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